JPMorgan has maintained a positive stance on the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) eventual approval of spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Despite previously estimating no more than a 50% chance of approval by May, the firm’s optimism remains unwavering.
Ethereum ETF Approval Odds Improve Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou
Managing director and global market strategist at JPMorgan, suggested that a delay beyond May could lead to a litigation process similar to past legal disputes, such as those involving Grayscale, where he believes the SEC could be defeated. This scenario may set the stage for the approval of Ethereum ETFs, though likely on a delayed schedule.
“If there is no spot Ethereum ETF approval in May, then we assume there is going to be a litigation process after May,” said Panigirtzoglou.
This optimistic view continues despite the SEC’s examination of the Ethereum Foundation and attempts to classify Ethereum as a security. However, the decreasing market share of Lido Finance eases centralization concerns, improving Ethereum’s chances of not being labeled as a security.
JPMorgan’s analysis highlights network decentralization as a key factor, referring to the SEC’s Hinman documents.
“The share of Lido in staked ETH has decreased further… This should reduce concerns about concentration in the Ethereum network, thus raising the chance that Ethereum will avoid being designated as security in the future,” Panigirtzoglou explained.
However, this sentiment is not shared by all. Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expressed less optimism, revising his approval chances to 25% from an initial 70% in January.
The SEC’s call for comments on several spot Ethereum ETF proposals, from industry giants such as Fidelity, Grayscale, and Bitwise, introduces a significant level of anticipation. These proceedings are under close observation, as they could greatly affect the regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in the US.
